AS IT STANDS: The Shield race is tied, playoff fight stays hot & Tobi makes history

What a difference a week can make.

At the time of last week's column, Cavalry were five points up in the CPL Shield race, and Vancouver FC had a five-point cushion above the playoff line.

We've had six games played in the Canadian Premier League since then, and while all eight teams are still in the same table position as last week, things feel a lot different.

It began last Wednesday: FC Supra du Québec made up ground in the playoff race with a win over Inter Toronto, and Forge returned to excellent form by shutting out Pacific FC.

Saturday gave us a thrilling contest in Laval between Supra and Vancouver, where the winner would take sole control of fourth place. For a moment, Supra looked destined to jump above the line when Safwane Mlah put them in front in the 88th minute.

Callum Irving and Vancouver had other ideas, though; in desperation mode, the VFC goalkeeper took charge of a 92nd-minute free kick in Supra's half, and he floated the ball right onto Matteo Campagna's head for a last-gasp equalizer.

That means Vancouver have preserved their position for at least another week. In fact, they might have a chance to lock that up on Friday night when they host Halifax... if Supra and Inter Toronto provide the result they need.

The title race at the top of the table is even wilder. Forge played twice at home this week and outscored their opponents (Pacific and Inter Toronto) by a combined 8-0 scoreline.

On Thanksgiving Monday, Forge battered their 905 Derby rivals, winning 5-0 to officially eliminate Inter Toronto from playoff contention.

Cavalry, meanwhile, weren't able to hold onto a lead in Halifax, conceding late at the Wanderers Grounds. That 2-2 draw technically kept the Wanderers alive in the playoff hunt, but what's crazier is it left Cavalry and Forge tied on points with two weeks left.

We'll get into what all that means, but first, here's a look at the league table after 26 games played:

Pretty incredible, eh?

We've had title races go down to the wire in the CPL before; Forge only clinched the Shield last year on the final day of the season. However, this one truly feels like anyone's game. Forge looked vulnerable after last weekend's 3-3 draw with Halifax, but suddenly they're a juggernaut again.

Cavalry were about three minutes away from breathing freely, but instead they're 0-1-2 in their last three games, and that 6-0 win over Supra feels like a lifetime ago.

The good news for Cavs fans is their last two games of the season are at home, against Pacific and Vancouver. The other good news is they still mostly have control of their fate; if they win both matches, the only way Forge could pass them is if they make up six goals in differential — exceedingly unlikely, but worth keeping in mind, considering how Forge's attack has been working.

The Hammers look like they're nearing the height of their powers at exactly the right time of year.

In pretty characteristic fashion for the club this season, six of the eight goals they scored in the last week came from midfielders or defenders, including two from both Noah Jensen and Ben Paton. They've been scoring by committee all year, but it's also clear that Lucas Cavallini is helping create all that space at the top of the box because of how tightly defenders need to mark him.

Forge's next couple of weeks will be interesting, though. They've got a difficult trip to Ottawa next weekend, where they might also have the following Wednesday's Canadian Championship final in the back of their minds. There's no way they'd punt on the Atleti matchup, nor will Bobby Smyrniotis rotate his squad heavily, but they'd absolutely love to score a few early and conserve some energy late — much easier said than done against an energetic Ottawa side.

Last note on Forge: they did a great job honouring Kyle Bekker on Monday. Forge and Inter Toronto welcomed him onto the pitch with a full guard of honour before playing a video tribute that definitely brought out a few tears.

It was a nice moment to pay tribute to a true legend of the CPL. We've covered pretty much every angle of Bekker's retirement here at CPLsoccer.com, so go check that out, but it's worth repeating here that he deserves to be celebrated as one of this league's foundational stars.

Inter Toronto have hit the end of the road, and will miss the postseason for the first time since 2022. It's a frustrating moment for the club, who made a lot of splashy moves in the off-season that really didn't pan out the way they'd hoped. The story of their season has been inconsistency. Sometimes, they're brilliant — like they were recently in wins over Cavalry and Vancouver. Sometimes, they're far too easy to play against, as Forge showed on Monday.

It'll be interesting to see what changes happen at the club over the next few months; all we know for sure is this season has not been good enough for a side that was aiming to contend for a trophy.

In other news, Atlético Ottawa are quietly building up some very nice form heading into the playoffs. They've now locked up third place after a comfortable win over Pacific FC, where Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau looked back at his best. They were direct and aggressive, creating space by forcing Pacific's defenders backward. 

This will not be a team that either Cavalry or Forge would enjoy playing in the semifinals.

There's some hope in Halifax after Thomas Meilleur-Giguère's equalizer, but the Wanderers do need a lot to go their way to jump ahead of both Supra and Vancouver. Essentially, they need to win out, they need Vancouver to lose both the last two games, and they need Supra to drop points too.

The battle for that fourth playoff spot will be pretty intense, although it might not last more than another week. Regardless, it'll make for a thoroughly entertaining Friday night, where both games carry tremendous implications.

Awards Watch

Loïc Kwemi is suddenly way out in front of the Golden Boot race, with 15 goals — putting him four ahead of the closest competitors. He scored three in the last week, and all of a sudden he's knocking on the door of a Player of the Year nomination. At this point, it would be hard to keep Kwemi out of the list of finalists.

Speaking of likely POTY nominees, Tobias Warschewski finally notched his 10th assist on Monday in Halifax. He now holds the CPL's single-season record, and he's (obviously) the first player ever to hit double digits in both goals and assists in a year.

Before anybody asks, even if Supra make the playoffs it's definitely too late for Kyt Selaidopoulos to get into the Coach of the Year conversation. However, it's definitely tricky to guess at who the nominees might be, especially if Vancouver do end up missing out and Martin Nash is no longer a shoo-in. These next two weeks could swing that particular award more than any other.

U-21 Minutes Update

It was another solid week for the youngsters, with Halifax's Liam Mackenzie getting the start and doing quite well against Cavalry. Also, it was nice to see Shola Jimoh back on the pitch for Inter Toronto.

One thing to keep an eye on in these last two weeks is Cavalry. They still need 94 more U-21 minutes to hit the 2,000 threshold, which becomes trickier when you consider that they've already maxed out on their loan players, who can only account for 1,000 of the total. That means Adam Pearlman and Owen Graham-Roache won't contribute anymore to the ledger.

The likely solution is that Niko Myroniuk will start in midfield for the Cavs this weekend. With Harry Paton suspended after his red card and Eryk Kobza ruled out for yellow card accumulation, Myroniuk might have been a candidate to play anyway, so Tommy Wheeldon Jr. has an easy solve. If Myroniuk can go 90 minutes, they'll just need a few from James McGlinchey to hit the quota, and avoid going into the final matchweek needing minutes.

Coming up next…

Friday, Oct. 16

FC Supra du Québec vs. Inter Toronto
7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT (OneSoccer, TVA Sports 2)

Vancouver FC vs. Halifax Wanderers FC
10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT (OneSoccer)

Saturday, Oct. 17

Atlético Ottawa vs. Forge FC
1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (OneSoccer, TSN)

Cavalry FC vs. Pacific FC
4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT (OneSoccer, CBC)

Photo of the Week

I was going to pick the extremely sweet, heartwarming picture of Kyle Bekker and his family included higher up this article, but Dino Bontis crushing a turkey leg after two clean sheets in a week was too good. Happy Thanksgiving!

(Photo by Jojo Yanjiao Qian)